Climate Refugees and Shifting Boundaries: Reconsidering Avian Conservation Categories in the Anthropocene
Document Type
Event
Faculty Mentor
Joseph Staples
Abstract
Climate change and human-driven environmental alteration are rapidly reshaping avian distributions, migration timing, and ecological interactions across North America. As a result, long-standing conservation categories such as “native,” “non-native,” and “invasive” increasingly fail to capture the ecological realities of species movement. This study examines whether climate-driven redistribution of bird species requires reassessing how conservation science defines and manages species boundaries. Species distribution modeling and ecological forecasting are applied to three focal species representing different ecological pressures: Gymnogyps californianus (California Condor), Gavia immer (Common Loon), and Calidris canutus rufa (Red Knot). Using MaxEnt (species distribution) and DYMEX (population dynamics) models, we project changes in habitat suitability, range shifts, and disruptions to migration and breeding systems under multiple climate scenarios. Preliminary results indicate continued habitat contraction for the California Condor, northward shifts in Common Loon breeding habitat, and increased vulnerability of Red Knot migratory systems to phenological mismatch. These findings highlight the need for more flexible conservation frameworks that better reflect dynamic species movement in a changing climate.
Climate Refugees and Shifting Boundaries: Reconsidering Avian Conservation Categories in the Anthropocene
Climate change and human-driven environmental alteration are rapidly reshaping avian distributions, migration timing, and ecological interactions across North America. As a result, long-standing conservation categories such as “native,” “non-native,” and “invasive” increasingly fail to capture the ecological realities of species movement. This study examines whether climate-driven redistribution of bird species requires reassessing how conservation science defines and manages species boundaries. Species distribution modeling and ecological forecasting are applied to three focal species representing different ecological pressures: Gymnogyps californianus (California Condor), Gavia immer (Common Loon), and Calidris canutus rufa (Red Knot). Using MaxEnt (species distribution) and DYMEX (population dynamics) models, we project changes in habitat suitability, range shifts, and disruptions to migration and breeding systems under multiple climate scenarios. Preliminary results indicate continued habitat contraction for the California Condor, northward shifts in Common Loon breeding habitat, and increased vulnerability of Red Knot migratory systems to phenological mismatch. These findings highlight the need for more flexible conservation frameworks that better reflect dynamic species movement in a changing climate.
